Validation of seismic hazard curves using a calibrated 14 ka lacustrine record in the Eastern Alps, Austria.

Seismic hazard maps are crucial for earthquake mitigation and mostly rely on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, the practise and value of PSHA are under debate because objective testing procedures for seismic hazard maps are scarce. We present a lacustrine turbidite record revealing 44 earthquakes over the last ~ 14 ka and use it to test seismic hazard curves in southern Austria. We derive local seismic intensities for paleo-earthquakes by applying scaling relationships between the sedimentary imprint and seismic intensity of well-documented historical earthquakes. The last ~ 2.8 ka of the record agree with a Poissonian recurrence behaviour and therefore a constant hazard rate, which is the modelling choice for standard PSHA. The lacustrine data are consistent with the intensity-frequency relationship of the local seismic hazard curve, confirming the current PSHA approach for this part of Austria. On longer timescales, distinct phases of enhanced regional seismicity occurred, indicating a potential increase of seismic hazard after large earthquakes-a factor hitherto disregarded in the PSHA of the Eastern Alps. Our new method forms an independent procedure to test hazard maps in any setting where suitable lake systems are available.

What controls the remobilization and deformation of surficial sediment by seismic shaking? Linking lacustrine slope stratigraphy to great earthquakes in South-Central Chile.

Remobilization and deformation of surficial subaqueous slope sediments create turbidites and soft sediment deformation structures, which are common features in many depositional records. Palaeoseismic studies have used seismically-induced turbidites and soft sediment deformation structures preserved in sedimentary sequences to reconstruct recurrence patterns and - in some cases - allow quantifying rupture location and magnitude of past earthquakes. However, current understanding of earthquake-triggered remobilization and deformation lacks studies targeting where these processes take place, the subaqueous slope and involving direct comparison of sedimentary fingerprint with well-documented historical earthquakes. This study investigates the sedimentary imprint of six megathrust earthquakes with varying rupture characteristics in 17 slope sediment cores from two Chilean lakes, Riñihue and Calafquén, and evaluates how it links to seismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, bracketed duration and slope angle. Centimetre-scale stratigraphic gaps ranging from ca 1 to 20 cm - caused by remobilization of surficial slope sediment - were identified using high-resolution multi-proxy core correlation of slope to basin cores, and six types of soft sediment deformation structures ranging from ca 1 to 25 cm thickness using high-resolution three-dimensional X-ray computed tomography data. Stratigraphic gaps occur on slope angles of ≥2.3°, whereas deformation already occurs from slope angle 0.2°. The thickness of both stratigraphic gaps and soft sediment deformation structures increases with slope angle, suggesting that increased gravitational shear stress promotes both surficial remobilization and deformation. Seismic shaking is the dominant trigger for surficial remobilization and deformation at the studied lakes. Total remobilization depth correlates best with bracketed duration and is highest in both lakes for the strongest earthquakes (M w ca 9.5). In lake Riñihue, soft sediment deformation structure thickness and type correlate best with peak ground acceleration providing the first field-based evidence of progressive soft sediment deformation structure development with increasing peak ground acceleration for soft sediment deformation structures caused by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. The authors propose that long duration and low frequency content of seismic shaking favours surficial remobilization, whereas ground motion amplitude controls Kelvin-Helmholtz instability-related soft sediment deformation structure development.

Seismic control of large prehistoric rockslides in the Eastern Alps.

Large prehistoric rockslides tend to occur within spatio-temporal clusters suggesting a common trigger such as earthquake shaking or enhanced wet periods. Yet, trigger assessment remains equivocal due to the lack of conclusive observational evidence. Here, we use high-resolution lacustrine paleoseismology to evaluate the relation between past seismicity and a spatio-temporal cluster of large prehistoric rockslides in the Eastern Alps. Temporal and spatial coincidence of paleoseismic evidence with multiple rockslides at ~4.1 and ~3.0 ka BP reveals that severe earthquakes (local magnitude ML 5.5-6.5; epicentral intensity I0 VIII»-X¾) have triggered these rockslides. A series of preceding severe earthquakes is likely to have progressively weakened these rock slopes towards critical state. These findings elucidate the role of seismicity in preparing and triggering large prehistoric rockslides in the European Alps, where rockslides and earthquakes typically occur in clusters. Such integration of multiple datasets in other formerly glaciated regions with low to moderate seismicity will improve our understanding of catastrophic rockslide drivers.

Earthquake Impact on Active Margins: Tracing Surficial Remobilization and Seismic Strengthening in a Slope Sedimentary Sequence.

Strong earthquakes at active ocean margins can remobilize vast amounts of surficial slope sediments and dynamically strengthen the margin sequences. Current process understanding is obtained from resulting event deposits and low-resolution shear strength data, respectively. Here we directly target a site offshore Japan where both processes are expected to initiate, that is, at the uppermost part (15 cm) of a sedimentary slope sequence. Based on a novel application of short-lived radionuclide data, we identified, dated, and quantified centimeter-scale gaps related to surficial remobilization. Temporal correlation to the three largest regional earthquakes attest triggering by strong earthquakes (M w >8). Also, extremely elevated shear strength values suggest a strong influence of seismic strengthening on shallow sediments. We show that despite enhanced slope stability by seismic strengthening, earthquake-induced sediment transport can occur through surficial remobilization, which has large implications for the assessment of turbidite paleoseismology and carbon cycling at active margins.

Half-precessional dynamics of monsoon rainfall near the East African Equator.

External climate forcings-such as long-term changes in solar insolation-generate different climate responses in tropical and high latitude regions. Documenting the spatial and temporal variability of past climates is therefore critical for understanding how such forcings are translated into regional climate variability. In contrast to the data-rich middle and high latitudes, high-quality climate-proxy records from equatorial regions are relatively few, especially from regions experiencing the bimodal seasonal rainfall distribution associated with twice-annual passage of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Here we present a continuous and well-resolved climate-proxy record of hydrological variability during the past 25,000 years from equatorial East Africa. Our results, based on complementary evidence from seismic-reflection stratigraphy and organic biomarker molecules in the sediment record of Lake Challa near Mount Kilimanjaro, reveal that monsoon rainfall in this region varied at half-precessional ( approximately 11,500-year) intervals in phase with orbitally controlled insolation forcing. The southeasterly and northeasterly monsoons that advect moisture from the western Indian Ocean were strengthened in alternation when the inter-hemispheric insolation gradient was at a maximum; dry conditions prevailed when neither monsoon was intensified and modest local March or September insolation weakened the rain season that followed. On sub-millennial timescales, the temporal pattern of hydrological change on the East African Equator bears clear high-northern-latitude signatures, but on the orbital timescale it mainly responded to low-latitude insolation forcing. Predominance of low-latitude climate processes in this monsoon region can be attributed to the low-latitude position of its continental regions of surface air flow convergence, and its relative isolation from the Atlantic Ocean, where prominent meridional overturning circulation more tightly couples low-latitude climate regimes to high-latitude boundary conditions.

La depresión submarina de Guaracayal Estado Sucre Venezuela: una barrera para la propagación de la ruptura cosísmica a lo largo de la falla del Pilar / The underwater depression of Guaracayal Estado Sucre Venezuela: a barrier to the propagation of the coseismic break along, the el Piar Fault

La depresión de Guaracayal, en el golfo de Cariaco, estado Sucre, Venezuela, fue inicialmente reconocida a partir de un levantamiento batimétrico realizado en la década de los ochenta. Un levantamiento de sísmica somera de alta resolución adquirido en el golfo de Cariaco a bordo del B/O Guaiquerí II en enero 2006 reveló que esta depresión resulta ser una cuenca en tracción activa (“active pull-apart basin”) sobre la traza activa submarina de la falla dextral de El Pilar, por su geometría y lo fresco y prominente de los escarpes de fallas que la limitan. Esta cuenca, con una profundidad de aguas de ~15m mayor que el fondo plano ubicado a unos -80m, mide aproximadamente 8km de longitud en dirección este-oeste y unos 2km transversalmente. La cuenca se forma en un relevo dextro, es decir transtensivo, de la traza submarina de la falla de El Pilar, que secciona en dos porciones lo propuesto anteriormente como un único segmento de falla con extensión entre Cumaná y Casanay-Guarapiche. Esta separación entre ambas trazas de 2km parece ser suficiente barrera para la propagación lateral de la ruptura sísmica, tal como lo evidencia la sismicidad contemporánea e histórica. El tramo de falla Cumaná-Casanay, de unos 80km de longitud, ha requerido en dos ocasiones de la conjunción de dos sismos contiguos en dirección oeste-este (1797-1684 y 1929-1997) para romperse en su totalidad. No obstante, no se excluye la posibilidad de un evento que rompa toda la extensión del segmento, a pesar de este comportamiento sísmico reiterado.